Can TikTok win its last-bitch ban legal battle? – TechHQ

Dashveenjit Kaur
@DashveenjitK
dashveen@techforge.pub
Will TikTok survive the Supreme Court? What’s at stake In today’s ban legal battle. (Photo by NICOLAS ASFOURI / AFP)
The TikTok ban legal battle enters a decisive phase as the US Supreme Court prepares to hear the social media giant’s challenge today. This could be the company’s final attempt to prevent a forced sale or shutdown of its US operations by January 19, 2025.
According to Bloomberg’s recent analysis, ByteDance Ltd., TikTok’s parent company, faces a complex web of legal, political, and economic challenges. The company is fighting against bipartisan legislation signed by President Biden in April 2024, which requires ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operations or face a nationwide ban.
The odds appear stacked against TikTok in this crucial legal battle. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matthew Schettenhelm gives TikTok just a 30% chance of success, noting that while the Supreme Court’s decision to hear the case is “highly unusual,” it doesn’t necessarily signal a favourable outcome for the platform.
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals’ December ruling already upheld the law’s constitutionality, which justified the government’s national security concerns about Chinese data access and propaganda risks.
If implemented, the ban would effectively prevent companies like Oracle Corp., Apple Inc., and Alphabet Inc. from providing TikTok’s technical infrastructure to operate in the US. On the other hand, in its fight against the ban, TikTok has invested heavily in its legal and public relations strategy.
Bloomberg reports that the company has spent over $2 billion on Project Texas, its data security program. In its Supreme Court filing, TikTok argues that the law represents an unprecedented attack on free speech, stating it would be “the first time in American history that Congress has banned a major platform for communication and expression.”
A unique element in this TikTok ban legal battle is President-elect Donald Trump’s stance. As Bloomberg reports, Trump has reversed his previous position and now opposes the ban, requesting the Supreme Court to pause the law’s implementation until his January 20 inauguration.
The shift has complicated the political dynamics, particularly given that several of Trump’s cabinet appointees, including Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, have been leading advocates for the ban.
The political landscape surrounding the ban is increasingly complex. Bloomberg also stated that support for a TikTok ban has declined among US adults, roughly half of whom currently use the platform.
Some Republicans have questioned the ban, particularly those connected to Susquehanna International Group co-founder Jeff Yass, a significant ByteDance investor.
If legal efforts fail, ByteDance faces significant challenges in finding a buyer. Bloomberg notes that the price tag could reach $40-50 billion, limiting potential buyers. While previous suitors included Microsoft Corp. and Oracle, no clear buyer who could afford the purchase and navigate the complex regulatory landscape has emerged.
The ban’s implications extend beyond US borders, potentially further straining US-China relations. Chinese authorities have warned that using national security as a pretext for forced sales could lead to retaliatory measures against US companies.
This significantly complicates any potential sale scenario, as China’s approval is likely necessary for any significant transaction.
The potential ban could dramatically reshape the social media landscape. While TikTok could potentially survive without the US market – given its billion-plus global users – losing access to US consumers and advertisers would significantly impact its growth trajectory.
Meta’s Instagram platform stands to benefit most, although Trump has explicitly opposed the ban partly because it would advantage Meta. YouTube and other video-focused services could also increase user engagement and advertising revenue.
Shares in both Meta and Alphabet jumped significantly when the divestiture bill initially passed the House of Representatives. However, it is noteworthy that the US remains the most valuable market for social media advertising, making any ban particularly costly for ByteDance’s global ambitions.
The potential impact on TikTok Shop, the platform’s rapidly growing e-commerce initiative, is of particular concern. The company had ambitious plans to expand this service tenfold, plans that a US ban would severely disrupt.
Today’s Supreme Court hearing represents more than just TikTok’s fate; the outcome might influence future policies regarding foreign-owned technology platforms and reshape social media globally.
The ruling, expected before the January 19 deadline, will determine whether ByteDance must pursue a forced sale of its US operations or face a nationwide ban. While alternative scenarios exist – including potential delays or regulatory workarounds – the clock is ticking for one of the world’s most popular social media platforms.
Dashveenjit Kaur
@DashveenjitK
dashveen@techforge.pub
9 January 2025
8 January 2025
8 January 2025