AI forecaster can predict the future better than humans – New Scientist

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An AI forecaster based on the language model GPT-4 can predict the outcome of future events more accurately than single humans. In some cases, it can even outperform the “wisdom of crowds”
By Alex Wilkins
26 March 2024

AI can make predictions about future events, such as the behaviour of the stock market
James Thew / Alamy
An artificial intelligence can predict the future as well as groups of people for events like political elections or economic trends.
People are notoriously bad at predicting the future, at least on an individual level. But websites called prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of future events, have demonstrated that the wisdom of crowds leads to better guesses. The average, crowdsourced predictions, which take into account many people’s forecasts, tend to be…
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