Africa's Rice Market to Grow at 1.3% CAGR, Reaching 66M Tons by 2035 – IndexBox, Inc.

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IndexBox has just published a new report: Africa – Rice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The rice market in Africa is expected to continue growing steadily, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.3% in volume and +1.8% in value from 2024 to 2035. This growth is fueled by rising demand for rice in the region, leading to an anticipated market volume of 66M tons and a value of $42B by the end of 2035.
Driven by increasing demand for rice in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 66M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $42B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
In 2024, after three years of growth, there was decline in consumption of rice, when its volume decreased by -0.8% to 57M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 7.5% against the previous year. The volume of consumption peaked at 58M tons in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.
The value of the rice market in Africa totaled $34.7B in 2024, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 8.6%. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $34.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Nigeria (8.7M tons), Madagascar (5.6M tons) and Egypt (5.1M tons), together comprising 34% of total consumption. Guinea, Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, Benin and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Nigeria ($10.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Madagascar ($3.9B). It was followed by Egypt.
In Nigeria, the rice market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Madagascar (+2.4% per year) and Egypt (-2.3% per year).
The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Guinea (290 kg per person), Madagascar (181 kg per person) and Benin (161 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +4.3%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
After six years of growth, production of rice decreased by -3% to 41M tons in 2024. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume at 43M tons in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by measured growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.
In value terms, rice production declined slightly to $26.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.7% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $26.6B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Nigeria (8.7M tons), Madagascar (5M tons) and Egypt (5M tons), together comprising 45% of total production. Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Sierra Leone lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Senegal (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The average rice yield was estimated at 2.3 tons per ha in 2024, stabilizing at 2023. Overall, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 6.7%. The level of yield peaked at 2.4 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.
In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of rice production in Africa fell to 18M ha, dropping by -3.3% against 2023 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 7.1%. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 18M ha, and then shrank modestly in the following year.
In 2024, the amount of rice imported in Africa was estimated at 17M tons, surging by 5.1% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 18M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, rice imports rose notably to $7.6B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $7.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Benin (1.7M tons), Cote d’Ivoire (1.6M tons), Senegal (1.5M tons), South Africa (1.1M tons), Burkina Faso (1M tons), Guinea (0.9M tons), Kenya (0.9M tons), Cameroon (0.7M tons) and Ethiopia (0.7M tons) represented roughly 58% of total imports in 2024. Ghana (577K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +14.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest rice importing markets in Africa were Benin ($757M), South Africa ($646M) and Cote d’Ivoire ($616M), together accounting for 27% of total imports. Senegal, Kenya, Ethiopia, Guinea, Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.
Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +12.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (13M tons) represented the major type of rice, creating 74% of total imports. It was distantly followed by broken rice (3.7M tons), mixing up a 21% share of total imports. Husked (brown) rice (607K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
Imports of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, husked (brown) rice (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, husked (brown) rice emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in Africa, with a CAGR of +2.1% from 2013-2024. Broken rice experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (+3.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of broken rice (-3.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($6.1B) constitutes the largest type of rice imported in Africa, comprising 80% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($1.3B), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 2% share.
For semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (-1.7% per year) and husked (brown) rice (-4.0% per year).
In 2024, the import price in Africa amounted to $445 per ton, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the import price increased by 11% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $472 per ton. From 2015 to 2024, the import prices failed to regain momentum.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($483 per ton), while the price for paddy rice ($246 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by milled rice (+1.3%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.
In 2024, the import price in Africa amounted to $445 per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the import price increased by 11%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $472 per ton. From 2015 to 2024, the import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($597 per ton), while Burkina Faso ($147 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya (+2.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.
In 2024, shipments abroad of rice decreased by -0.6% to 1M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after four years of growth. In general, exports, however, posted a slight increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 61%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.5M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, rice exports totaled $570M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a modest increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 72%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $750M. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.
In 2024, Djibouti (370K tons), distantly followed by Tanzania (221K tons), South Africa (143K tons), Rwanda (86K tons) and Senegal (69K tons) were the largest exporters of rice, together comprising 88% of total exports. Mauritius (39K tons) and Cote d’Ivoire (30K tons) took a minor share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Djibouti (with a CAGR of +34.5%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Djibouti ($178M), Tanzania ($127M) and South Africa ($106M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 72% of total exports.
Among the main exporting countries, Djibouti, with a CAGR of +34.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice represented the main exported product with an export of around 769K tons, which recorded 74% of total exports. It was distantly followed by broken rice (196K tons), making up a 19% share of total exports. Paddy rice (43K tons) and husked (brown) rice (25K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +4.4% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, paddy rice (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Husked (brown) rice experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, broken rice (-4.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice increased by +19 percentage points. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($433M) remains the largest type of rice supplied in Africa, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($99M), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 3.5% share.
For semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice, exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (-2.8% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+1.1% per year).
The export price in Africa stood at $561 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 1.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($786 per ton), while the average price for exports of paddy rice ($407 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by broken rice (+1.6%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.
The export price in Africa stood at $561 per ton in 2024, growing by 1.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 16%. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($740 per ton), while Senegal ($406 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+4.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the rice market in Africa. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.
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